10-Month SMA Constant-Mix: above the average, restore your chosen QQQ / T-bill mix; below it, hold 0% QQQ / 100% T-bills. Decisions execute on the first trading day of each month. Data through , refreshed daily.
| Decision day | Action | Trade | Cost | QQQ | Cash | Total wealth |
|---|
One row per decision day, newest first.
10-Month SMA Constant-Mix: compare the previous completed month's dividend-adjusted QQQ close with its trailing 10-month simple average. At or above the average, rebalance to the selected QQQ / T-bill target on the next month's first trading day. Below the average, sell QQQ and hold 100% 3-month T-bills.
The reference risk-on target is 75% QQQ / 25% T-bills. The slider changes that risk-on target; the risk-off target remains 0% QQQ / 100% T-bills. Trades are charged 10 basis points per 100% of portfolio turnover. The target is a drawdown-tolerance choice, not an optimized forecast.
Why the model specification changed (2026-07): deploying the whole hypothetical capital at once beat spreading it over 60 months in about 4 of 5 historical windows, and at matched average exposure a mechanical cash buffer protected the worst cases better than the signal-driven reserve it replaces β the signals fired at a real bottom exactly once in 27 years (2008-11 β¦ 2009-04) and spent the reserve mid-crash in 2000β2002.